Rate Lock Advisory

Friday, September 18th

Friday’s bond market has opened well in negative territory to give back all of yesterday’s rally. Stocks are also showing early losses with the Dow down 184 points and the Nasdaq down 25 points. The bond market is currently down 18/32 (5.00%), which should cause an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point. If you saw an intraday improvement in pricing late yesterday, you will likely see a larger than referenced increase this morning.

18/32

Bonds

30 yr - 5.00%

184

Dow

51,593

25

NASDAQ

26,397

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Positive

Industrial Production

This morning’s first economic release was August’s Industrial Production data at 9:15 AM ET. It showed output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities was unchanged from July’s level. Since analysts are expecting to see a 0.3% increase in output, we can label the report as favorable for mortgage rates. However, this report doesn’t carry enough importance in the markets to offset the broad negative momentum currently in the bond market.

Medium

Positive

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

The Conference Board gave us their Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for August at 10:00 AM ET, announcing a 0.1% decline. In other words, the indicators are pointing to flat or modestly slower economic activity over the next three to six months. As a sign of softer economic growth, the report is good news for rates. Again though, this is just a moderately important report that usually has a minor impact on rates when the markets are calm. Therefore, it is having no influence on this morning’s mortgage rates unfortunately.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Next week’s calendar is much lighter than this week was with just a few economic reports scheduled for release and two short-term Treasury auctions. None of the data is considered to be important and all of it comes over the latter days, leaving trading to be influenced by other factors early in the week. President Trump’s summit with China’s President XI midweek could create some headlines that are relevant to the markets, particularly related to tariffs. Also worth noting is that with the FOMC adjournment this past Wednesday, the Fed’s mandatory quiet period is now over. This means we will start to see plenty of individual Fed-member speeches that could draw a reaction if there are surprise comments about what the Fed may do in the upcoming meetings. Look for details on all of next week’s activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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